Will spot Bitcoin ETFs be accepted in the coming days?

The past week has witnessed a surge in investor interest in Bitcoin spot ETFs, with intense speculation on social media as the possibility of approval draws near.

Let's delve into the world of Bitcoin spot ETF applications and explore the likely date of acceptance.

Are we on the verge of a breakthrough in Bitcoin spot ETF applications?

This week has provided further evidence of the immense interest investors have in the narrative surrounding Bitcoin spot ETFs. This interest has been particularly evident on social media, where rumors about these investment vehicles have been circulating in abundance.

On January 3rd, Bitcoin experienced a sudden drop of approximately 9%, plummeting from $45,500 to less than $42,000 in just over an hour.

While the true cause of this drop remains uncertain, many observers attributed it to a publication by Singaporean firm Matrixport, which boldly claimed that "the series of pending Bitcoin spot ETFs awaiting validation from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would be delayed."

Bitcoin price change in the fourth quarter of 2023

Simultaneously, the beginning of 2024 saw a flurry of administrative filings by Bitcoin spot ETF applicants with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Although initially challenging to decipher, these filings serve as additional proof, according to ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, that the US regulator is clearly open to dialogue. From their perspective, SEC Chairman #Gary Gensler would not have engaged dozens of SEC employees in resolving mere administrative queries with various Bitcoin ETF applicants if he intended to reject them outright. In fact, Bloomberg Crypto reported on January 5th that the SEC had "no further feedback" regarding the Bitcoin spot ETF applications under review.

On Friday evening, all Bitcoin spot ETF applicants in the US submitted 19b-4 documents. But what exactly are these documents?

The SEC still needs to review certain documents related to Bitcoin spot ETFs

According to an article by Bloomberg, it was the SEC staff themselves who requested the various companies involved to submit their "19b-4" documents by Friday, January 5th.

According to James Seyffart, all of these documents were submitted to the SEC within the requested timeframe.

The 19b-4 documents contain proposed amendments (likely resulting from meetings with the SEC) regarding the ETF's structure, investment objectives, index tracking methods, fees, and other vital information.

Table summarizing the current status of ETF filings, including authorized participants and 19b-4 filings

Furthermore, the SEC also requested ETF applicants to provide the final version of their S-1 filings by Monday, 8:00 AM (Washington time), which is 2:00 PM in France. The S-1 form is used to register a public offering of securities, providing comprehensive details about the issuing company, its activities, finances, and the terms of the offering.

Thus, while an approval window by the SEC was set between January 8th and 10th, it is likely that the regulator will only make a decision on the last day after thoroughly reviewing these final documents.

The home stretch before the SEC's decision

In general, S-1 forms are approved before 19b-4 forms, although it is entirely possible for the SEC to approve both simultaneously. It should be noted that these two forms represent the final hurdle before a potential approval: if approved by the SEC, the ETFs can be launched in the markets the following day.

The SEC commissioners, appointed by the President of the United States and responsible for regulating the US financial market, will begin reviewing these two documents on Monday morning. However, it is worth mentioning that the approval or rejection of the ETFs can also be delegated to the #SEC staff without requiring a vote from the commissioners.

In other words, the final documents have been submitted by the various ETF applicants, and now we eagerly await the SEC's decision. Regardless, the US regulator must make a pronouncement no later than next Wednesday, at least regarding the #Bitcoin ETF application filed by #Ark Invest & #21 Shares.

Bloomberg analysts now estimate a 95% chance of at least 11 ETFs being approved, as some applications were submitted relatively late. The applicants themselves also seem confident: #Grayscale previously stated that the approval of these Bitcoin spot ETFs is a matter of "when, not if," and companies like #Hashdex and #Bitwise have already launched advertising campaigns for their products.